Liquidity & Technical
Liquidity & Technical
Figures converted from EUR at historical FX rates — see data/company.json.fx_rates for the rate table. Ratios, margins, multiples, technical indicators (RSI, MACD, vol percentiles) and percentages are unitless and unchanged.
Topicus is illiquid by institutional standards — five-day capacity at a 20% ADV cap is only $17.1M, supporting a 5% portfolio weight for funds up to roughly $342M and nothing larger. The tape is firmly bearish: price sits 27% below the 200-day, an October-2025 death cross is intact, and the stock is parked one rally away from a new 52-week low while realized vol has just crossed into the stressed band.
1. Portfolio implementation verdict
5-day capacity, 20% ADV ($M)
Issuer % cleared in 5d (20% ADV)
Max fund AUM, 5% wgt ($M)
ADV 20d / Mkt Cap
Technical score (−6 to +6)
Illiquid / specialist only. ADV of just 0.13% of market cap means a 1% issuer position takes ~41 trading days to exit at a 20% participation cap. Funds above ~$350M AUM should treat this as a watch-list name, not an addable line. Tape is bearish: do not chase strength here.
2. Price snapshot
Price ($)
YTD return
1-year return
52-week position
30d Realized Vol
3. Five years of price action — and a regime change
Price is 27% below the 200-day SMA — a downtrend, not a pullback. The full-history view shows the stock round-tripping from a ~$77 IPO base, through a ~$223 cycle high in July 2025, back to $107 today. The most recent death cross fired 2025-10-28 at roughly $173; the 200-day SMA has been declining ever since ($186 → $147 in seven months) and price has remained below it for the entire stretch.
The October-2025 death cross is the third in three years (prior: 2024-12-20, 2023-11-06). What's different this time is that price never reclaimed the 50d after the cross — earlier death crosses bottomed and reversed within 8–10 weeks; this one has extended for 6+ months with the spread widening.
4. Relative strength — benchmark not covered
The standard broad-market reference for a TSX Venture-listed name is EWC, but the data feed returned an empty benchmark series for this run and no sector ETF or peer basket was constructed. Relative-strength signal therefore cannot be assessed from inside this report. Readers who need it should pair the price chart above against the iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC) externally; on absolute return alone, TOI's 1-year drawdown of −45% is more than double EWC's recent annualized range, so qualitative read is "lagging hard."
5. Momentum — RSI and MACD
Near-term momentum is neutral, not constructive. RSI is 45 and has not made an oversold print (under 30) since February 2026, when it touched 25 — so the snapback rally to $123 in early March used up the easy short-covering bid. MACD line and signal are both negative (−1.71 and −1.09) with the histogram drifting back down (−0.18 → −0.62 over the last four weekly observations), confirming the April bounce attempt has rolled. The 1-month return is −7.9% and the 3-month return is +6.2%, which together describe a stock chopping in a $103–$123 band while making lower highs.
6. Volume, volatility, and sponsorship
The signal: volume turned on as price fell. The 50-day average has roughly quintupled, from ~30k shares/day in mid-2025 to ~162k now — and the biggest single-day prints (Feb-Mar 2026, hitting 280k–500k shares) clustered on down days. This is the textbook signature of distribution by a previously concentrated holder base. The 2026-02-03 session printed 3.67× average volume with a −6.1% close — institutions reducing exposure into the break of $109.
Top three volume-spike days
The three largest volume multiples in the file all predate the current downtrend; absent named filings or news events tying these days to a catalyst, they read as concentrated-holder rebalancing rather than fundamental information events.
Realized vol at 48.6% is just above the historical p80 of 47.8% — a "stressed" regime in the company's own context, surpassed previously only during the 2022 software bear market and the late-2025 cycle-top reversal. Stressed vol on a stock that is also illiquid means execution risk is non-trivial: a single market order can move the print 3–5% on a normal day.
7. Institutional liquidity panel
Topicus is institutionally illiquid. ADV at 0.13% of market cap is roughly 4–5× thinner than a typical large-cap; turnover of 18.6% per year sits in the bottom decile of TSX-listed software issuers. The numbers below are computed accurately, but the practical implication is that any institutional position is built and exited over weeks, not days, and patient block execution is required.
A. Average daily volume and turnover
ADV 20d (shares)
ADV 20d ($M)
ADV 60d (shares)
ADV 20d / Mkt Cap
Annual turnover
B. Fund-capacity table — what AUM can this stock support?
Reading the table from the fund side: a $340M fund can build a 5% weight in five days at a 20% ADV cap; a $1B fund cannot run more than a 1.5% weight without stretching to weeks. At a more conservative 10% ADV cap, the supported AUM halves — a $170M fund for a 5% line, a $850M fund for a 1% line. The largest issuer-level percentage that clears within five trading days is essentially zero: under any normal participation regime, even a 0.1% issuer position requires the full week to enter or exit.
C. Liquidation runway — days to exit common position sizes
A 1% issuer position ($140M) takes roughly two months to exit at a 20% participation cap, four months at 10%. A 2% position runs to a full quarter or more — meaning a holder of that size is structurally married to the stock unless markets cooperate or a block trade clears.
D. Intraday range proxy
The 60-day median daily range is 1.95% of price — close enough to 2% that a 50–100 bps execution cost on a market order should be the working assumption. Combined with the illiquid ADV, this is a stock where VWAP/POV algorithms with overnight extensions are the appropriate execution tool, not aggressive day-orders.
Bottom line on liquidity: The largest position that can be cleanly cleared in five days at 20% ADV is approximately $17.1M (worth 0.12% of market cap, or a 5% line in a $342M fund). At the more conservative 10% cap, the same five-day budget covers only $8.5M. Topicus is a small-fund / specialist-allocator stock.
8. Technical scorecard and stance
Stance — bearish on 3-to-6 month horizon, total score −4. The tape carries asymmetric setup risk to the downside: a declining 200-day SMA at $147 caps the upside without a multi-week base, while the 52-week low at $96.79 sits just 10% below current price with no proven support in between. Momentum is neutral rather than oversold (RSI 45 is not a contrarian buy print), and the volume signature of the last four months reads as ongoing distribution rather than capitulation. The two levels that change the view: a decisive weekly close above $123 (which would reclaim the 50- and 100-day SMAs together and clear the upper Bollinger at $122.53, signalling the downtrend has at minimum paused) flips the stance to neutral; a daily close below $96.79 (52-week low) breaks the next support and shifts the stance to "avoid until structure repairs." Liquidity is the constraint. Even if a fundamental investor concludes the stock has bottomed, building a meaningful position takes weeks at the current ADV — for any fund above $350M AUM the appropriate posture is watchlist with patient accumulation across multiple weeks, not chasing strength on a bounce.